Average Nfl Over Under
Introduction
That ‘certain number’ is the NFL over under or total. Much like the point spread, oddsmakers set the total and invite you bet over or under. For example, if the Giants vs Cowboys game has an over under value of 45.5 and the final score is 30-17, then OVER bettors win (because 30+17 = 47 which is greater than 45.5). Over Record: The number of times the game went over, under, and pushed Over%: The percentage of time the total went over, net of pushes Under%: The percentage of time the total went under, net of pushes Total +/-: The average amount of points that the game goes over (negative in unders). NFL over under results for the 2019 regular season. Compare each teams streak against the opening and closing NFL over under totals lines and each teams average game total. Super Bowl 55, 2/7/21 Bucs vs. Chiefs Over/Under Predictions Sunday, 07 February 2021 Super Bowl 55 Over/Under Prediction The Chiefs and Bucs both rank in the top-5 offensively, but with a high total and rain in the forecast, will Super Bowl 55 go over the.
View 2021 NFL futures odds for season-long Over/Under Wins from the top sportsbooks in the US. Easily see which sportsbook offers the best odds for NFL futures bets.
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.
Point Spread Bets
I admit 'point spread bet' is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a 'straight bet' but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.
Point Spread Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All home | 1,484 | 1,680 | 56 | 46.90% | 1.26% | -2.46 | -10.28% |
| All away | 1,680 | 1,484 | 56 | 53.10% | 1.26% | 2.46 | 1.34% |
| All favorite | 1,488 | 1,617 | 56 | 47.92% | 1.27% | -1.64 | -8.36% |
| All underdog | 1,617 | 1,488 | 56 | 52.08% | 1.27% | 1.64 | -0.57% |
| Home underdog | 492 | 520 | 20 | 48.62% | 2.22% | -0.62 | -7.05% |
| Home favorite | 968 | 1,125 | 36 | 46.25% | 1.55% | -2.43 | -11.51% |
| Away underdog | 1,125 | 968 | 36 | 53.75% | 1.55% | 2.43 | 2.57% |
| Away favorite | 520 | 492 | 20 | 51.38% | 2.22% | 0.62 | -1.87% |
| Home pick | 24 | 35 | 0 | 40.68% | 9.21% | -1.01 | -22.34% |
| Away pick | 35 | 24 | 0 | 59.32% | 9.21% | 1.01 | 13.25% |
| All | 3,164 | 3,164 | 112 | 50.00% | 0.89% | 0.00 | -4.47% |
Explanation of column headings:
- Bet: Type of bet
- Wins: Number of wins against point spread
- Losses: Number of losses against point spread
- Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
- Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
- Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
- N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
- Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.
Over/Under Bets
Average Nfl Over Under Top
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I've been wrong before.
Under and Over Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 1,586 | 1,576 | 58 | 50.16% | 1.26% | 0.13 | -4.17% |
| Under | 1,576 | 1,586 | 58 | 49.84% | 1.26% | -0.13 | -4.76% |
Money Lines
Nfl Line And Over Under
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.
Money Line Bets in the NFL
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL
| Spread | Games | Wins | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 69 | 49.6% | 46.4% | 115 |
| 1.5 | 88 | 43 | 48.9% | 44.6% | 124 |
| 2 | 126 | 51 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 133 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 98 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3 | 517 | 235 | 45.5% | 39.4% | 154 |
| 3.5 | 279 | 107 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 165 |
| 4 | 157 | 59 | 37.6% | 36.1% | 177 |
| 4.5 | 128 | 47 | 36.7% | 34.4% | 191 |
| 5 | 89 | 23 | 25.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 5.5 | 118 | 38 | 32.2% | 31.3% | 220 |
| 6 | 133 | 45 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 236 |
| 6.5 | 147 | 42 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 254 |
| 7 | 220 | 51 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 273 |
| 7.5 | 146 | 36 | 24.7% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 8 | 65 | 14 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 315 |
| 8.5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 22.8% | 338 |
| 9 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 21.6% | 363 |
| 9.5 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 20.4% | 390 |
| 10 | 104 | 19 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 10.5 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 18.2% | 450 |
| 11 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 483 |
| 11.5 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 16.1% | 519 |
| 12 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 558 |
| 12.5 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 13 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 644 |
| 13.5 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 12.6% | 692 |
| 14 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 743 |
| 14.5 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 798 |
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).
Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- If you bet off the board, either do a pick-3 or mix in one leg that isn't at the standard -110 odds, to get off the lousy parlay odds table, and force a fair calculation.
- On parlay cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the 'off the board' point spread.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.
Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry's Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the 'off the board' point spread.
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
| MOV | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% |
| 2 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 3.4% |
| 6 | 6.2% |
| 7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | 3.6% |
| 9 | 1.7% |
| 10 | 5.6% |
| 11 | 2.5% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 4.8% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 3.1% |
| 18 | 2.3% |
| 19 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 2.4% |
| 21 | 3.2% |
| 22+ | 15.7% |
| Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
Buying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By 'capture' I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
| Total Points | Num. in Sample | Probability | Fair Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
| 31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
| 33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
| 34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
| 35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
| 36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
| 38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
| 40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
| 41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
| 42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
| 44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
| 45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
| 46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
| 47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
| 48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
| 49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
| 50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
| 51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
| 52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
| 54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
| 55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
| 56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
| 57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
| 59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
| 60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.
Internal Links
- Alternate point spread calculator.
- Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
- Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
- NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
- Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas
Written by: Michael Shackleford
NFL point totals have been exceptionally high through the first four weeks of the 2020 season with offenses having the jump on defenses across the league. Eight teams are averaging 30 or more points per game and nine are allowing at least 30 PPG. As such, bettors continue to have success by backing the Over.
SportsbookWire.com obtained some data from BetMGM to see how sportsbooks are adjusting their projected point totals and Over/Unders for the rise in scoring.
2020 NFL point totals and betting results
The following table looks at the average NFL point totals in each week compared to the results on BetMGM‘s Over/Under line.
| Week | Average total | Over/Under result |
| 1 | 45.5 | 9-7 (56% Over) |
| 2 | 46.1 | 11-5 (69% Over) |
| 3 | 48.2 | 9-7 (56% Over) |
| 4 | 49.6 | 7-7-1 (50% Over) |
Average Over Under For Nfl Games 2019
As seen, BetMGM has adjusted total lines in order to get a desired 50-50 split on Over/Under results, despite the fact in-game scoring has continued to rise.
Which teams have seen the greatest rise in projected totals?
The New Orleans Saints have started the season 4-0 against the Over/Under and are the only team to do so. They’re topping the projected point totals by 11.6 points per game.
BetMGM had the Saints’ total at an average of 48 points in Weeks 1 and 2 and raised that line to an average of 51.5 in Weeks 3 and 4.
The Buffalo Bills, 3-0-1 against the Over/Under, had an average total of 41 points in the first two weeks of the season with the projection soaring to an average line of 50 in Weeks 3 and 4.
How popular is NFL Over/Under betting?
Bets on NFL point totals make up 25-30% of all bets on NFL games, according to BetMGM. Against the spread bets see about three to four times the action on any given game compared to the total, as the most popular bet made on NFL games.
The Over is almost always the more popular side of the line, and received the majority of bets in 55 of 63 games through four weeks.
Over Under Nfl Teams
BetMGM’s Sportsbook manager Matt Cosgriff had this to say on how the book is adjusting based on the rise in scoring early in the season:
Overs are always a popular bet and the public has been winning at a high rate. We will be giving the totals greater emphasis and expect to set higher numbers going forward to combat this unprecedented scenario.
Average Nfl Over Under Armour
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Average Over Under Nfl 2019
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Nfl Over Under Week 1
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